CFP Rankings Shift: Miami Climbs to No. 13 as Georgia Jumps to No. 4, Tide Falls

CFP Rankings Shift: Miami Climbs to No. 13 as Georgia Jumps to No. 4, Tide Falls

The College Football Playoff selection committee dropped its third rankings of the 2025 season on Tuesday, November 18, and the shakeup was anything but subtle. The Miami Hurricanes surged two spots to No. 13, but the real story wasn’t just their climb—it was why they didn’t climb higher. Despite beating Notre Dame in the season opener, the Hurricanes sit four spots behind the Fighting Irish, a gap that reveals more about the committee’s philosophy than any win-loss record ever could.

Why Miami Isn’t Higher—And Why Notre Dame Is

The Miami Hurricanes, with an 8-2 record under head coach Mario Cristobal, won their last game in dominant fashion: 41-7 over North Carolina State University. That should’ve been enough. But here’s the twist: Miami’s two losses came against University of Louisville and Southern Methodist University—both unranked. Meanwhile, Notre Dame, at No. 9, lost to Miami and No. 3 Texas A&M University. That distinction matters. As Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde put it: "This year’s rankings reveal a clear trend that the selection committee is rewarding who you lost to, not who you defeated."

It’s a brutal standard. Win big, sure—but lose to a nobody, and your resume gets stained. Miami’s 27-24 win over Notre Dame in the opener at Hard Rock Stadium feels like a footnote now. The committee isn’t looking at head-to-head results alone. They’re weighing strength of schedule, margin of defeat, and—critically—the caliber of opponents you couldn’t beat. That’s why Georgia jumped to No. 4 after crushing University of Texas at Austin 35-10. Texas, once a top-five contender, tumbled seven spots to No. 17.

The Top Three Hold Steady—But the Rest Are Shaking

The top three remain untouched: Ohio State at No. 1, Indiana at No. 2, and Texas A&M at No. 3—all undefeated, all playing like national title favorites. But behind them, chaos. The Alabama Crimson Tide, once a lock for the top four, dropped six spots to No. 10 after a shocking 31-28 loss to Oklahoma Sooners. That loss didn’t just hurt their ranking—it shattered their playoff hopes. Now, they’re fighting just to stay in the top 12.

Meanwhile, Brigham Young (No. 11), Utah (No. 12), and Miami (No. 13) are all within striking distance of the final four playoff spots. The 12-team format, now in its first year, means every ranking shift matters. Under the current projection, Miami would face University of Mississippi (Ole Miss) in the first round. But that’s only if the season ended today.

Miami’s ACC Path: A Long Shot With a Twist

Here’s the reality check: Miami won’t win the Atlantic Coast Conference title. Not unless a miracle happens. To reach the ACC Championship Game Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, Miami must win out—and hope Virginia, Georgia Tech, and SMU lose every remaining game. Even then, Duke has to drop one of their last two. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Georgia Tech a 35.3% chance to win the ACC, Virginia 32.7%. Miami? Less than 5%.

But here’s the silver lining, as Canes Warning’s David Sisk notes: "Miami doesn’t have a good chance to make the ACC title game, but they do have a better chance to make the CFP as an at-large bid." With the new 12-team format guaranteeing five conference champions a spot, the remaining seven are open to the highest-ranked at-large teams. Miami’s strength of schedule, its win over Notre Dame, and its late-season momentum could be enough. Right now, they’re projected as the No. 11 seed.

What’s Next? The Final Countdown Begins

What’s Next? The Final Countdown Begins

The next three weeks will define this season. Georgia’s path to the top is clear: beat Florida and Georgia Tech in the regular season finale. Ohio State faces Michigan in the regular-season finale—the game that could decide the No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Alabama’s season is slipping away. One more loss, and their playoff dreams are over.

The final CFP rankings drop on Sunday, December 7, 2025. The first round of the playoff begins Friday, December 19. For Miami, every game from here on out is a referendum on whether the committee values wins over losses—or losses over wins. And right now, the answer is clear: it’s not about who you beat. It’s about who you lost to.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Miami ranked lower than Notre Dame despite beating them?

The CFP committee prioritizes the quality of losses over wins. Miami lost to unranked Louisville and SMU, while Notre Dame’s two losses came against No. 13 Miami and No. 3 Texas A&M. Even though Miami won the head-to-head matchup, the committee views Notre Dame’s losses as more credible, boosting their resume.

Can Miami still make the College Football Playoff?

Yes, but it’s unlikely. Miami needs to win all remaining games and hope several top-15 teams lose. With their current projection as the No. 11 seed, they’re in the at-large conversation. But if they lose even one game, especially to an unranked opponent, their chances vanish.

How does the 12-team playoff format benefit teams like Miami?

The 12-team format guarantees five conference champions a spot, leaving seven at-large slots open. That means even teams from weaker conferences—or those who don’t win their conference—can sneak in. Miami doesn’t need the ACC title to make it; they just need to be among the top seven non-champions, which is now possible with their current ranking.

Why did Alabama fall so far after losing to Oklahoma?

Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma wasn’t just a defeat—it was a collapse against a team that had already lost two games. Combined with Georgia’s rise and Texas’s fall, Alabama’s resume now looks inconsistent. Their earlier wins over unranked teams don’t offset the loss to a team outside the top 10, especially with other contenders having stronger schedules.

When is the ACC Championship Game, and who’s likely to play?

The ACC Championship Game is set for Saturday, December 6, 2025, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Georgia Tech (35.3% FPI chance) and Virginia (32.7%) are the favorites. If Georgia Tech beats Pittsburgh on November 23 and Virginia beats Virginia Tech on November 30, they’ll face off for the title.

What’s the significance of the committee’s "quality of loss" philosophy?

It’s a seismic shift from past years. Previously, teams were rewarded for beating ranked opponents. Now, losing to a top-10 team can be a badge of honor. This rewards consistency and schedule strength over flashy wins. It’s designed to prevent teams from padding their records against weak opponents—a move critics say finally makes the rankings more fair.